Limits

It does not pick winners

A flock buys whatever token its creator describes. In our replay, the median flock member got back -5.4% an hour later: the fees. The mean was positive (+2.9% for a 0.1 ETH flock) because a handful of launches ran, and no member lost more than 20%. That is a property of buying at the bottom of the curve, not a prediction.

It does not stop the creator

The creator can sell his tokens later, tax his own flock up to 5%, and walk away. The tax is fixed and shown before you join; the rest is the same risk as any Pons token.

The floor ends at graduation

If the token raises 4.2 ETH it moves to a Uniswap pool and the curve floor is gone. 26 of 8,135 launches got there in our snapshot (0.3%). If you hold through graduation, you are exposed to a normal market. Sell on the curve if you want the floor.

Size is capped

A flock buys at most 0.25 ETH. That is deliberate: a larger one would pay more for its own impact than a late buyer does. If demand is larger, everyone is filled with the same fraction.

Bots after launch

Bots can buy once the token exists. They pay more than the flock and are taxed 99% for the first three seconds, but they can still buy.

The measurement

One snapshot of 4 days of Pons launches (8,135 launches, ETH pairs, default configuration), exits modelled on the curve, a random sample of 700 in the Lab. It describes what happened. It is not a forecast, and other weeks can look different.

Not advice

This is a tool. It is not investment advice, it is not audited, and it is not affiliated with Robinhood or Pons. Use small amounts, and only what you can lose.